Phil was commissioned by the Atlantic Council, the US non-partisan thinktank, to produce a report ahead of the Group of 20 finance ministers and heads of leaders’ summit in 2020. the report was based on his in-depth interviews with 10 senior directors at the council as well as a large amount of background material and research.
The report was aimed to be a concise explanation of the issues that the politicians and their advisers would need to deal with and advice on how to ensure that the summits are a success at such a crucial time for the world’s economy, health security and long-term sustainability.
At its heart is the idea that the G20 is the only body with the clout to save the global economy and that only by focusing on cooperation and consensus combined with pragmatic leadership by the United States can it succeed in that mission. The link to the report is here.
Phil acted as a media consultant at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research to help the communications team boost the profile of the academic think tank. During the five months from November to late March, he assisted with the existing media coverage programme and focused on expanding the range and penetration of the media’s coverage of its activities.
This has centred around using three key events – the General Election, our quarterly National Institute Economic Review, and the Budget – as a platform to push out material based on our economists’ and scientists research. This resulted in a sizeable number of articles placed in media, interviews by journalists and appearances on TV and radio news programmes as well as major take-up of social media.
The team created a microsite on our website dedicated to the Election Analysis to house nine election briefings by NIESR staff in later November and early December in the run-up to the 11 December polling day. It worked with EconFilms to produce six video-casts by NIESR staff and curated five podcasts by NIESR staff. On the back of these, it was able to pitch opinion pieces that ran in various media.
Britain after Brexit. As there was no funding for new research, the team aimed to maximise NIESR’s economists’ research and knowledge to put out opinion articles for mainstream media and make them available for interview.
February saw the publication of the centrepiece quarterly publication, the National Institute Economic Review. This was covered widely in the media following a press conference organised in media and as a result of pitches to both print and broadcast media. It also led to a number of appearances on radio, opinion columns by NIESR staff and mentions in opinion pieces written by others.
The Budget. The team planned for this set-piece event by identifying issues that were likely to feature in the Budget and in which staff had expertise. This led to placed articles ahead of the Budget and major pick-up of the new forecasts. The institute published a booklet of collated reactions on the afternoon of the Budget.
Coronavirus. Although this became a major economic issue in mid-March, the team was able to promote material written on the issue.
Phil wrote a column for The Independent’s Voices section at the end of February urging the International Monetary Fund and World Bank to take up the leadership role that leaders such as Donald Trump and Boris Johnson had failed to play. The piece urged them to repeat the role that the IMF played in 2008 in the wake of the global financial crisis where it pulled together the leaders of the G20 countries to take action. Fortunately IMF head Kristalina Georgieva and World Bank head David Malpass did exactly that in early March.
Phil was honoured to be asked to help with writing news stories and comment pieces for The Independent while it recruited an economics editor.
Working on a part-time basis he wrote several stories on the UK, US and eurozone economies as well as specific areas such as the housing market, social patterns and the coronavirus.
He also wrote a weekly column for the website’s Voices section on a range os issues including a number that put behind its Premium paywall. these included a piece on social inequality seen through the lens of the film Parasite, the negative potential of the government’s migration proposals, and the current housing crisis seen over his 20 years of reporting on the issue.
We were asked to produced an analysis of the economic and social benefits derived from the creation of Containerville, a business workspace built from disused freight containers and based in a derelict site in east London.
We aggregated their records of the number of business that have set up, the number of people employed and put together a dataset on wage income, supply chain value and tax paid. We found that almost 350 jobs have been created by the companies at Containerville since it started in 2015, which have in turn helped to sustain other jobs in the area.
Using input-output tables from the Office for National Statistics, that translated into total annual earnings of £10.35m for a workforce that is made up predominantly of local residents. We estimate gross annual turnover of £78.8m coming into Containerville’s resident companies. Using an ONS multiplier of 1.54, we estimate that that activity brings a further £42.6m in indirect and induced benefit.
Containerville firms’ procurement budget is estimated at £35.2 m or £54.2m after applying the multiplier. Containerville also generates tax revenues. Income tax from workers is estimated at £2.07m a year while VAT receipts from businesses’ and employees spending amounts to another £2.07m.
There were also social benefits including supporting local shops and bringing life and spice to a formerly derelict land dominated by disused gasholders. Helping small businesses thrive is essential for creating jobs that are vital for people’s wellbeing and the establishment of strong and stable communities. It is easy to forget that giant corporations such as Amazon and Apple were themselves built on the success of small businesses using their platforms to sell their wares.
You can read the report here using Issu
Business Life, a Channel Islands-based magazine aimed at the financial sector, commissioned Phil to look at whether Europe was suffering from Japanisation – a structural shift to a low growth, low inflation near-zero interest rates that the Asian superpower has seen for almost 30 years.
He spoke to many analysts including Holger Schmieding at Berenberg Bank who disputed the idea that Japan was “suffering”, Andrew Milligan at Aberdeen Standard Investments looked at the impact on banks and advisers to high wealth individuals and Amit kara at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research highlighted the challenge that investment managers will face to secure higher yields in Europe and other Japanised economies.
The article is here.
Phil has been commissioned to write a weekly column on economics and related issues for The Independent news website.
The first column on 6 January looked at how Boris Johnson’s focus on getting Brexit done means that he is ignoring Britain’s parlous record on productivity – which is the real key to future long-term economic growth.
The second column on 13 January dismissed Domald Trump’s “greatest ever” trade deal with China and argued that the US president has declared war on the multilateral trade system by refusing to allow judges to be appointed to the World Trade Organization’s appeals court, so leaving the world vulnerable to ongoing tit-for-tat trade wars.
Phil was one of 85 economists and analysts asked to submit their answers to four questions about the outlook for the UK economy in 2020. The five questions and (edited) answers were:
1. Will the UK see a ‘Boris bounce’ in growth in 2020, and how long will any improvement last? “No. The stock market may be going gangbusters but real economic activity will be constrained by continued uncertainty over Brexit.”
2. To what extent will fiscal stimulus support the economy in 2020 and beyond? “To some extent. The previous Johnson government announced £11.7bn in current spending for public services but the manifesto added just £2.3bn by 2024. By definition, that will add some fiscal stimulus (and is a welcome change from austerity) but it is not the game-changer envisaged by Labour.
3. Will households feel better or worse off at the end of 2020? “With economic activity not likely to soar and productivity growth remaining weak, that seems unlikely. The raising of the NI threshold to £9,500 amounts to about £2 a week but that’s hardly going to make a huge difference.”
4. What should the new Bank of England governor change in the conduct of monetary policy? “Not much is likely to change in the first half of the year while the new governor gets his or her feet under the desk.”
The full responses are here
Phil was asked to look at how central banks have effectively taken over financial markets for the Review of 2019 supplement published by Global Capital magazine. He spoke with a number of economists both in the private sector at at multinational institutions and drew ondata from the IMF and BIS. The article is published here.
Phil helped organise the coverage by the magazine GlobalMarkets of the annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank that were held in October 2019 in Washington D.C.. GlobalMarkets is the new name for the magazine Emerging Markets that has covered the meetings of all the multilateral banks for a quarter of a century.
He wrote a number of features analysing key issues that came up at the meetings of the finance ministers and central bankers of the 187 member countries. The features looking at the outlook for the two institutions: the first examined the strategy of new World Bank President David Malpass and the impact he has made so far (here); the second looked at the other new leader – IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva – and what her tasks here.
He also wrote a number of news stories including: a pledge by new World Bank COO Axel van Trotsenburg to deliver results on the ground (here); a warning by World Bank chief economist Penny Goldberg on the threat deglobalisation poses to its poverty targets (here); and a story on the final stages of the negotiations to secure $80bn for the World Bank’s arm that operates in the poorest countries (here)
He was also heavily engaged in news planning, copy sub-editing and headline writing.