Contribution to Financial Times 2017 survey

We were asked by the Financial Times to contribute our views on a range of issues with the potential to affect the UK economy during 2017. These included eight specific areas including growth, inflation, Brexit and immigration. Overall we predicted that growth would slow sharply, that inflation would rise and the negative impact from Brexit had been postponed rather than cancelled. On growth we said: “Growth is likely to fall to perhaps half the pace in 2016. Growth has been stronger than expected since the Brexit vote so numbers for 2016 and 2017 will be higher than expected. However a delayed fall in business investment and in consumer spending will be exacerbated by rising unemployment and falling real wages as inflation picks up, thus slower growth.”

The report which has links to individual survey responses can be found here.