Phil contributed analysis pieces to the coverage of the annual meetings of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development in May by Global Markets magazine. The meetings were held in May 2022 as the military attacks by Russia on Ukraine were well into their third month.
One piece looked at the likely negative impact that the conflict would have not only on Russia and Ukraine but on the EBRD’s central and eastern European (CEE) region. A partner piece examines the impact on inflation and interest rates in the region.
A key element of that is the likely disruption to regional and global oil markets which this piece looked at. While oil price rises will cause problems for many CEE countries, Russia and Ukraine’s place in global food markets will cause major problems and misery for countries on the North African fringe of operations. This piece looks at that.
The EBRD is one of many international financial institutions to have offered to increase funding for projects in Ukraine: this piece looked at who has given what, and how much the likely final bill will be.
Finally, there may be some glimmer of hope from the unity that the conflict seems to have inspired within the European Union and NATO. This piece looks at how this might bring together the EBRD’s shareholders and recipient countries 31 years after its foundation in the wake of the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Phil spoke to a number of senior figures who were, or are close to the issues involved in seting up the Vienna Initiative. This was the collaboration betwen international institutions and banks to ensure that the 2009 global financial crisis did not spill over into central and eastern Europe. It tackled fears that EU-based banking groups would rush to reduce their debts by selling assets in emerging European countries.
He spoke with senior officials and bankers at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the European Investment Bank, Raiffeisen Bank International, and the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies. One issue was whether the tensions created out of the Russia/Ukraine situation could unnerve and banks and require a Vienna 3.0. The consensus was not, bgutone should watch this space. The story is here
We wrote and researched two articles for the latest edition of EMEAfinance magazine and website. The first was based on an interview with Tomasz Telma, regional director for Eastern Europe and Central Asia at the International Finance Corporation, the private sector-focused arm of the World Bank Group. With the prices of oil and other commodities hitting new low levels he set out his vision for building a model of long-term sustainable growth for a region that is still seen as an unexploited emerging market. The article can be found here.
In the run-up to the annual meetings of the European Bank of Reconstruction and Development, we looked at the bank’s investment in financial institutions (FI). We spoke with Nick Tesseyman, its managing director for financial institutions, Alexander Saveliev, head of operations and portfolio for FIs as well as with Erik Berglof, who was until recently its chief economist. The article looks at the role that investment in FIs has played over the 25 years from 1991 to 2016 from the initial investments as the countries opened up after the collapse of the Soviet Union, through to the steps taken in the midst of the global financial crisis, to more recent investments in the current tricvy volatile and low-interest rates environment. The article can be found here.