Business Life, a Channel Islands-based magazine aimed at the financial sector, commissioned Phil to look at whether Europe was suffering from Japanisation – a structural shift to a low growth, low inflation near-zero interest rates that the Asian superpower has seen for almost 30 years.
He spoke to many analysts including Holger Schmieding at Berenberg Bank who disputed the idea that Japan was “suffering”, Andrew Milligan at Aberdeen Standard Investments looked at the impact on banks and advisers to high wealth individuals and Amit kara at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research highlighted the challenge that investment managers will face to secure higher yields in Europe and other Japanised economies.
The article is here.
The Think.ING website has looked at how central baks have changed how they communicate with the public, drawing from behavioural science to simplify their message and reach more people. Phil looked at how central banks must also ensure their messages are heard in an increasingly noisy media environment where there are many new suppliers of news thanks to the growth of the internet and use of mobile apps.
The article looks at research into how central banks have fine-tuned their messaging and used different channels with different versions of the same message to appeal to a wider range of people.
The premier example was Jamaica where the central bank has issued a series of videos on Twitter and other social media in recent months featuring reggae singers and musicians telling viewers that if inflation is too high “the people have a cry” and “if it’s too low the country nah grow”.
The lesson is that as populism threatens the established order and digital and social media expand their reach, it is only a matter of time before other central banks recognise the need for plain talking. The blog post is here.